All posts by James W. Breckenridge

Provincial

Clark, Leadership and the HST.

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When it was confirmed that Christie Clark was planning to run for the leadership of the BC Liberal party I thought it a positive for the party and the province. Not because I thought Christie Clark would make a good leader (I lacked enough information on her and her policy positions to make an informed judgment on that) but because she was not ‘one of the gang’ and offered the possibility of a candidate that was not more of the same old thing. There was also the possibility that Clark’s entering the leadership race would encourage one or several others who were not part of Gordon Campbell’s inner circle to enter the leadership race.

Hearing, as part of her announcement of her decision to pursue the leadership, Clark announce that if chosen as leader she would hold an open and free vote on the HST caused me to doubt Clark has what it takes to be leader in what will be a time of difficult, and on occasion unpopular, decisions to be made in order to provide the leadership and governance BC will need in the coming years.

In considering what comments I wanted to make about Clark’s announcement I found myself leaning towards opening with a comment that Clark was in a leadership race to lead the BC Liberals, not a popularity contest to be a talk show host.

Then common sense asserted itself and I acknowledged the reality that the leadership of a political party, and elections themselves, are about popularity – not about ideas or ability. A Reality that does much to explain the sad state politics, government and society are in today (but that is a whole other discussion).

In choosing the easy way out on the matter of the HST Clark promised to bow to the minority of BC citizens (22%) who signed the anti-HST petition; deprive the majority of BC citizens (78%) of an opportunity be heard and to express their thoughts on the HST; opened the door to fiscal, healthcare and education crises for BC; shown herself to be unsuited to be premier of BC.

[A referendum that is not so much about yes/no on the HST but whether the remaining 78% of British Columbians are willing to ‘cut off their noses to spite their faces’ by repealing the HST and damn the damaging costs.]

What ever else one may choose to say or think of Gordon Campbell he stood firm and took the shots on the HST in a manner that both held his MLAs together on the HST and provided them cover (at least to some extent).

Campbell refused to take the easy way out by giving in to the threats and blackmail of Vander Zalm and the anti-HST forces and hold a free vote in the legislature which would have denied the majority of BC citizens the right to be heard and triggering the serious negative consequences for the province that a repeal of the HST will bring about.

Let us assume that Clark were to win the leadership of the Liberals and holds her free and open vote on the HST, what will the outcome(s) be?

The NDP have campaigned and called for a free vote to end the HST. Even if some members of the NDP have the fiscal acumen (admittedly an assumption as no member of the NDP caucus has evidenced any effective understanding of the financial reality in BC) to recognize the fiscal consequences, political advantage has been demonstrated to be more important to the NDP than the consequences of repealing the HST.

With Christie Clark taking the easy way, the politically popular way out on the HST, why would Liberal MLAs take flack and possible career ending damage by voting no? In fact it would be smart for Liberal MLAs to have a ‘crisis’ that required them to be elsewhere on the day of the vote, thus avoiding the need to vote No and permitting them to claim they did not vote to repeal the HST and bear no responsibility for the consequences of repealing the HST.

What are the consequences I refer to?

The first is that the final $475 million payment due July 1, 2011 from Ottawa for implementing the HST will not be paid. Meaning that in 2011 the government either cuts $475 million out of healthcare and education or it raises taxes to raise the additional $475 million needed to offset the forgone payment..

In addition the BC government has already been paid $1.1 Billion by Ottawa to implement the HST. No HST and Ottawa will want, will be entitled to have the money paid to the BC government to implement the HST refunded/returned.

Despite the bafflegab spouted by the anti-HST forces about negotiating on the matter of repayment, Ottawa has no need to do any negotiating.

Do you know what the amount of money transferred from Ottawa to BC will be in 2011? For the major transfers alone, items such as healthcare and education, it will be approximately $ 5 billion.

Ottawa has no need to negotiate repayment of the money BC will owe to Ottawa if BC repeals the HST, it can simply deduct the $1.1 billion from the $5 billion. Ottawa is not going to set a precedent by not getting repayment for a province accepting payment then not carrying through with the actions agreed upon.

The best BC can hope for on the ‘negotiating’ front is that Ottawa is willing to be merciful and spread the $1.1 repayment over 2 or three years, or deduct the $1.1 billion in 2012 rather than reducing BC’s revenue flow in 2011 by $1.6 billion ($1.1 billion repayment due for repealing the HST and $475 million July 2011 payment forgone by repealing the HST).

If the federal government is feeling punitive they could well charge BC $40 – $100 – $200 million for costs associated with the on then off HST agreement

However the repayment timing is resolved, by repealing the HST the province of BC will be reducing its revenue by the $1.6 billion it was to (or did) receive from the federal government to implement the HST.

BC will either have to make massive cuts to healthcare and education to cut $1.6 billion out of its budget or increase taxes, fees etc by $1.6 billion to avoid deep cuts to healthcare and education.

Proponents of repealing the HST may advocate borrowing funds to cover the $1.6 billion to cover the costs of repealing the HST, but borrowing funds will have costs – if the funds can be borrowed.

The province had an agreement with the federal government, accepted funds to implement the HST and now those leading the anti-HST campaign are talking about negotiating how much, if any, of the money paid the province by the federal government for the HST they will repay.

Would you want to lend money to a government that makes an agreement, accepts payment then backs out of the agreement? Would you want to do business with a province that does not keep its agreements? Would you want to lend money to a government that takes funds, doesn’t do what it committed to doing, then wants to negotiates how much it will repay?

The repeal of the HST would be as a result of a taxpayer revolt. How do provinces raise the funds to repay borrowing? That is right – through taxes. Are you going to want to lend money to a province that needs the money to fund a taxpayer’s revolt? What interest premium will be necessary to offset the perceived extra risk to lenders to get them to lend?

Then there is the reality that BC came close to having its bond rating lowered under its proposed borrowing/budgeting plans. What effect will having to borrow another $1.6 billion, because BC did not keep its word, going to have on the province’s credit rating?

Should the province succeed in funding the $1.6 billion it will be at a substantial interest cost – a cost that will eventually spread to all of BC’s debt.

One must also add to the cost of repealing the HST the extra $200 – $300 million dollars a year the HST would have added to the provinces revenue. That $200 -$300 million will either have to be replaced by increased taxes or program cuts – every year.

There is no ‘good’ outcome if the HST is repealed. There are simply differing degrees of costs and damage. Cost that could take the form of massive cuts to healthcare, education and other budget items; of large increases in taxes and fees; of large increases in debt and debt servicing costs; in damage to BC’s reputation for reliability and trustworthiness; the cost to the majority of BC businesses in 1) not having the benefits the HST confers on businesses and 2) having to switch back to GST and PST.

Costs that will, in keeping with demonstrated political (Liberal or NDP) behaviour, undoubtedly fall on those least able to bear them – the group that is also the least connected, least able to be heard and the least politically powerful.

Christie Clark’s declaration of candidacy for the leadership of the BC Liberal Party is the first time I have ever thought “this is a positive for the party and xxxxx (BC in this case)” at the start of an announcement speech and by the end of the announcement, based on what the candidate had to say, ended up thinking “this would be a disaster for xxxxx (BC in this case)”.

Interesting that in disqualifying herself for the Liberal leadership, as being capable of being the Premier of BC, Christie Clark has set out what is a (if not THE) defining issue for those seeking the leadership of the BC Liberals.

How Ironic that the issue that has plagued the BC Liberals for months, that ended Gordon Campbell’s ‘Teflon’ ability, that brought about Gordon Campbell’s resignation, not only remains a political hot potato (hence Christie Clark’s attempt to ‘duck’ the issue) but how they handle the critical HST issue is perhaps THE defining issue for those seeking the leadership of the BC Liberals – or the BC NDP.

Consider, Media, Provincial

Ironic Economic Reality

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On Mondays Global news cast was a story about the rebirth of Mackenzie, a forestry mill town in northern BC. It is a story that contained a number of ironic twists.

There is a certain irony in the part that demand from China is playing in the rebirth of forestry, in the economic benefit as lowest cost provider to China that is a result of BC’s location and in the fact that the Liberals will undoubtedly claim credit for what is, at it’s core, blind luck.

There is a higher level of irony involved in the fact the hated HST, which the people of the Prince George – Mackenzie riding (and people throughout BC who will benefit from the returning health of the forestry sector) signed a petition to repeal, contributed to the rebirth of the forestry sector.

But the largest and most darkly humorous irony in the report is the reality of life reflected in a seemingly small but very significant change between the 6 PM and the 11 PM Global newscasts.

On the 6 PM newscast the products of the forestry industry were referred to as BC’s most valuable export.

On the 11 PM newscast the products of the forestry industry were referred to as BC’s second most valuable export.

This change is reflective of the reality that BC Bud (marijuana) is, by a substantial margin, BC’s most valuable export. A further irony is that it was the substantial size of the marijuana business and the recession proof nature of the export market for BC marijuana that protected BC’s economy from the hard, deep economic downturn that would have hit had BC been forced to rely on its traditional (and legal) economy and exports.

Reality does not care what we want to be nor is it changed or affected by denial; Reality simply is. A very ironic truth for politics, politicians and many others in BC – and Canada.

Consider, Municipal, Snafu

Spare Clearbrook Library!

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That was what flashed into my mind as I read city manager Frank Pizzuto.’s statement “There are plans for that space [Clearbrook Library basement], great plans”.

Mr. Pizzuto’s statement was contained in an article on the cost incurred by the MSA Museum Society to store its collection of approximately 17,000 items after it moved out of the Clearbrook Library basement for a planned expansion of the library intro the basement.

Mr. Pizzuto’s statement was made in response to the fact that the new library scheduled to be built in Abbotsford means an expansion into the basement of Clearbrook Library is no longer necessary.

What is so disturbing about the city having “great plans” for the Clearbrook Library’s basement? The city’s track record with council “great plans”.

The same story included reference to half of the MSA Museum Society’s collection being at the Reach Gallery MUSEUM; a facility that was part of Abbotsford City Council’s great plans Plan A. Even though the size and contents of the MSA Museum Society’s collection was know at the time of Plan A the Society has to pay for storage because the Reach Gallery MUSEUM didn’t include storage space for the collection to relocate into from the Library basement.

Great Planning!

Then there was the recent front page story in The Province on the high cost to taxpayers of operating the Abbotsford Entertainment and Sports Complex. A Complex that was promised, as part of city council’s “great plans” to put $ million(s) into taxpayer’s pockets, not take it out of taxpayers pockets.

Council called those who asked to see the numbers the promised profits were based on ‘naysayers’; called they uniformed naysayers when they suggested council wait until the construction market cooled off to build the arena to avoid having something like the nearly 100% cost overrun happen; called them ‘naysayers’ again when they pointed out that it would be better for the taxpayer’s pocketbooks to not open the AESC until conditions were favourable. Council ploughed ahead leaving taxpayers covering the multimillion dollar yearly operating loses.

More Great Planning!

Of course the focus of the Province’s front page article was City Council having the taxpayers of Abbotsford subsidize the purchase of a professional hockey team for wealthy local businessmen; the fact that that council has failed to disclose to disclose the subsidy taxpayers paid in year one of the ten year agreement (a $ million, $2 million, $3 million?) for the purchase of the team – a subsidy for which taxpayers receive no ownership interest in the team; and that with the poor attendance numbers the subsidy is threatening to be higher in year 2.

More Great Planning!

The original plans for the Clearbrook Library basement by the library staff was as the Children’s Library. Of course that was before council had another of their “great plans” and cut down the shade trees, tore up the grassy slopes and put a pond right outside the basement entrance in building their seldom used $ million+ taxpayer unfriendly garden.

More Great Planning!

Council’s track record is why Frank Pizzuto referring to council having “great plans” for the Clearbrook Library basement is enough to strike terror in anyone who is a supporter, friend or user of Clearbrook Library.

Terror that has one wanting to scream “hands of that library you varmints” and preparing for a campaign to Spare Clearbrook Library any city council great plans.

Municipal

Only Abbotsford City Hall …

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What you should know concerning the above picture is that the times are not a special time set aside for couples or ‘Date Night’ time. The times cited are the existing times for the long established, often promoted and well advertized toonie ($2) swims; they are not any new program or promotion.

I have no idea what makes someone (or someones) with the city think that taking a date to the madhouse that is cheap/toonie swim is a good idea. Although I suppose it would make your dating life considerably less expensive since you would not be faced with the expense of a second or subsequent date(s).

Having the large poster, leaflets and other advertising materials produced is not inexpensive, a cost of thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.

Given that toonie swims are already well promoted and advertised, and assuming anyone is so injudicious as to think a crowded cheap swim is a good idea for a date, simple mathematics tells you that the cost of this new promotion will be significantly higher than any additional revenue generated from said new promotion.

I suppose in light of Abbotsford City Hall’s demonstrated lack of any mathematical skill and it’s proclivity to spend millions of dollars in order to ‘save’ taxpayers thousands of dollars, this kind of fiscally irresponsible behaviour is not out of character.

Still …… this campaign …… seems more like an excuse to pay someone for a ‘promotional campaign’. Makes one wonder who was paid to prepare the advertising materials and what their relationship to city hall, city council or the Abbotsford Heat is?

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Silly Season Open?

Under (sadly) the heading of more typical City behaviour I see that the lifeguards at the Abbotsford Rec Centre have been naughty and as a result will now have to bring their own personal towel to work.

It seems the lifeguards were not being diligent about making sure the supplied towels were getting washed and dried I a timely or consistent fashion. Behaviour not all that surprising considering many of the instructors are teenagers or UFV students.

Now I can think of several ways to ‘encourage’ or achieve compliance without the need of resorting to ‘if you don’t play the way I want I’m taking my toys (towels) and going home’ behaviour. Although, perhaps it is not all that surprising in light of numerous other examples of city staff and/or city council behaving more like a child rather than an adult.

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If you examine the special deal the city is offering on the date night promotion leaflet above you will see they are offering $2 off the regular admission price on Friday night at ARC; as a result of this you pay $3.85 (5.85 – 2.00) to get in on Friday under the City’s ‘special deal’.

If, instead of taking advantage of the ‘savings’ you waited until the Friday night $2 swim started you would avoid the $1.85 cost of the City ‘saving’ you money.

If it were not driving the City and taxpayers into bankruptcy territory it would be blackly humorous that even the smallest monetary ‘savings’ by the city results in citizens paying more than they would have without the city ‘saving’ them money.

Which is why, upon hearing words like “a deal, have we got a deal for you, savings, profit, on budget, good idea, a good plan” etc come out of the mouths of the mayor, city councillors or city staff, informed citizens:

1. are filled with foreboding and thoughts of ‘Not Again!”

2. place their hands in their pockets (purse) and take a very firm grip on their wallets.

3. say NO, loudly and firmly

4. urge their fellow citizens to “Just say NO!”

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Of course if someone at the city did have a good idea – say having recycling bins at the recreation centres so people who had no convenient way to recycle would have easy access and could recycle – someone at the city would probably come up with something that would negate the good idea.

Say – by putting the recycling bins behind a locked door.

Issues, Poverty

‘Tis the Seasons

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Ah yes – Black Friday and the official opening of the Season of Greed and its companion Seasons ‘it’s about ME’ and ‘Wasteful Plenty’.

The Season of ‘it’s about ME’ where people are phoning around looking for someplace to volunteer – early in December so they can get it done before they get busy. No, it cannot be January or June or October but must be December.

Should the organization be unable to accommodate the December, preferably early December, timetable …… it’s “Thanks but I’ll try somewhere else”. Should the organization be so … ungrateful as to suggest volunteering in another month at a different time of year … egad, that’s just not on.

The Season of ‘it’s about ME’ where it is not about the year round needs of others or the organizations that serve the community and those needs 52 weeks a year but about the needs of ME’s December.

Soon after the opening of the Season of ‘it’s about ME’ we will be into the Season of Wasteful Plenty, a sub-Season of the ‘it’s about ME’ Season.

The Season of Wasteful takes place during the two to three weeks before Christmas when the homeless are buried under so much Plenty they cannot carry it all.

Giving those to whom sharing or a generous heart is an anathema the opportunity to bemoan “See, the homeless are throwing away what was so generously given to them. So ungrateful; there is no point in trying to help them obviously don’t appreciate/deserve/want help.”

Both critics and givers overlooking or ignoring the reality that when you are homeless, you have no convenient storage for excess items; that when you travel from place to place by walking every ounce of weight gets heavier over the course of the day; that winter, with the need for warm clothing and its inclement weather, is the time of year the homeless can carry the least.

During the short 2 – 3 weeks of the Season of Wasteful Plenty the homeless are loaded down with so much stuff they either need a pack animal to carry it all or must chose the items most useful to their survival – and abandon the rest.

Then the High Holy Day(s) of the Season of Greed – Boxing Day and Boxing Week – arrive and the Spirit is switched off and thoughts of the homeless and giving are relegated to the scrap-heap of indifference – until the arrival of Black Friday once again signals the opening of the new Season’s of Greed, ‘it’s about ME’ and Wasteful Plenty.

Watching this cycle year after year, knowing how useful the items abandoned during the Season of Wasteful Plenty would be in the days, weeks and months following December 25th – if they were to be distributed in the New Year.

Watching people scramble to get their volunteering in, making themselves feel good or be able to say “oh yes, I volunteered at ******. Knowing what could be accomplished if volunteerism, generosity and the Spirit could truly be kindled in the hearts year round.

It is the season that, rather than bring out the Light in the human race, too often speaks to the worst in the human race.

It is the season that would have me despairing of the future of the human race was it not for …

The dental professionals who give their time to the Abbotsford Food Bank‘s dental clinic so those with the need, but not the means, can have dental care; the volunteers who not only faithfully come in to prepare and serve lunch throughout the year, but give up their holidays (i.e. thanksgiving) to come in to prepare and serve lunch so that holidays are not a day of hunger for those in need; the varied group of people who come together year round on Thursday evening to donate, prepare and serve a meal to those who hunger – outside in sun, rain or snow ; the congregations of Peace Lutheran and St. Matthews who one Sunday a month serve dinner; those who give their time as big brothers/sisters, to coach the Special Olympics, to coach soccer or hockey or baseball; the two friends who preserved my mobility (my car) and the benefits that flow from that mobility; others who struggle to meet the need in our community.

Behaviours and people remoulding the despair for the future into a search for the words to inspire others to think, to reflect and to change – choosing enlightened self-interest over greed.